Equity monthly view for May 2021

Posted On Tuesday, Jun 08, 2021


S&P BSE Sensex increased by 6.67% on a total return basis in the month of May 2021. After the resurging covid-19 wave in April, markets have reacted positively to the fall in the new daily cases and overall positivity rate of infections this month. On a trailing twelve-month (TTM) basis, the index has returned 62.09%. A favourable base of May 2020 is getting reflected in the TTM return. S&P BSE Sensex has outperformed the developed market indices such as S&P 500 & Dow Jones Industrial Average which appreciated by 0.69% & 2.21% respectively, during the month. This has helped the S&P BSE Sensex to reduce the underperformance as compared to the S&P 500 & Dow Jones Industrial Average on a YTD basis.

The broader market has done better than Sensex in the month of May 2021. The S&P BSE Midcap Index appreciated by 7.16% and the S&P BSE Small-cap Index rose by 8.93%. Power & Capital goods were the winning sectors for the month. As the Covid-19 wave receded during the month domestic focussed sectors saw renewed interest.

Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund saw a 7.11% appreciation in its NAV in May 2021. This compares to a 6.94% appreciation in its benchmark S&P BSE 200. Outperformance for the month was driven by holdings in Financials & Consumer discretionary. Cash in the scheme stood at approximately 7.7% at the end of May. Our approach remains to position the portfolio towards economic recovery without undermining the risk associated with pandemic-related economic upheavals.

Market Performance at a Glance
IndexYTD Returns (%)
S&P BSE 20014.36
S&P 50012.16
Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future
* On Total Return Basis
Source: Bloomberg

May has seen restrictions on mobility continue across most states. There has been some relief on the Covid-19 front as the daily new cases, active cases and daily fatalities all are trending down but the restriction on mobility has not eased. The state governments are exhibiting extreme caution to not repeat the mistakes of unlocking too quickly. Unlocking of restricted economic activity & general mobility should begin in June if the covid-19 cases continue to trend downwards. Maharashtra has already moved in that direction.

Inflation emerging as key risk:

We had flagged inflation as an emerging threat for economic recovery & equity markets in our last month’s newsletter. Since then, there has been some let-up in global base metal prices driven by Chinese government intervention. However, energy & food prices remain a concern. Retail petrol prices have already crossed Rs 100 per liter in many parts of the country and diesel is following closely. The higher transportation cost is expected to seep into general inflation. Further higher edible oil & pulses prices (India imports both these commodities in significant quantities) will add to the discomfort of RBI in maintaining the status quo on interest rates because food forms close to 50% of the CPI basket’s weight in India.

FII outflows continue for the second month:

After turning sellers last month FIIs have again sold Indian Equities in May.
They have sold US$ 388 mn worth of Indian Equities this month vs. selling of $1.6 bn in April. On a YTD basis, FPI inflows stand at US$ 5.44 bn. DIIs have been buyers in May to the tune of US$ 280 mn. The sharp reversal in global interest rates and recurrence of covid-19 induced uncertainty remains a risk to near-term foreign flows.

Equity markets moving from resilience to complacency:

Equity markets have welcomed the reduction of Covid-19 caseload and moved up sharply this month. They are already factoring in improvement in economic data and pent-up demand to some extent as the unlocking happens. Economic shocks like demonetization, an ill-planned GST implementation, LL&FS bankruptcy-induced credit tightness and lockdowns have tested the best of the corporate balance sheets & business models in the last few years. While larger companies are better placed to handle such jolts, it’s the smaller companies that face existential risks in such an environment. The small & midcaps indices are up by 118% and 86% in the last one year (vs. Sensex return of 62%) and reflect some sense of complacency in terms of risks. We would advise investors to exercise caution in this space.

Overall, Indian equities remain an attractive asset class and are expected to do well over the long term. A staggered investment approach via SIPs remains the simplest way to tide over market cycles. The last 12-14 months have also been a wake-up call for a balanced asset allocation plan and investors are suggested to ensure they spread their savings across Equities, Debt and Gold based on their long term goals and risk & return preferences.

Product Labeling
Name of the SchemeThis product is suitable for investors who are seeking*Riskometer
Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund

(An Open Ended Equity Scheme following a Value Investment Strategy)
• Long term capital appreciation

• Invests primarily in equity and equity related securities of companies in S&P BSE 200 index.
Quantum Long Term Equity Value Fund
Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High Risk

* Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
The Risk Level of the Scheme in the Risk-o-Meter is based on the portfolio of the scheme as on May 31, 2021.

Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

The views expressed here in this article / video are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Quantum AMC / Quantum Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s). The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

Please visit – www.quantumamc.com/disclaimer to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

Above article is authored by Quantum.

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