Debt monthly view for November 2022

The bond market has a positive run in November with bond yields coming down by 10-25 basis points (bond prices increased) across different maturities of government bonds. The benchmark 10-year Indian government bond yield fell by 17 basis points to close at 7.28% on November 30, 2022.

The two main drivers of the bond rally in the last month were – (1) an over 10% decline in crude oil price amid slowing global growth and lockdown in China, and (2) a steep drop in US treasury yields in expectation of the US Federal Reserve slowing down the pace of rate hikes.

Domestically, the Reserve Bank of India also slowed down the pace of rate hikes by raising the repo rate by 35 basis points in the December MPC meeting from 5.9% to 6.25%. This was slower than three back-to-back 50 basis points increases and a 40 basis point increase in four preceding MPC meetings.

The RBI maintained its policy stance as “withdrawal of accommodation” with a focus on bringing down the core inflation (ex-food and fuel inflation) which has been steaky above the RBI’s 6% upper threshold. This indicates that the rate hiking cycle in India is not over.

We would expect at least another 25 basis points of a rate hike in February next year. The RBI might pause the hiking cycle thereafter subject to inflation trajectory and global monetary policy developments.

With RBI monetary policy out of way, the bond market will switch its focus to the US fed meeting due on December 14, 2022, and to fiscal calculations ahead of next year’s budget.

The US Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by a reduced quantum of 50 basis points (vs 75 basis points increase in 3 three preceding meetings) in the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, given the recent robust data on the jobs market with the unemployment rate near a multiyear low at 3.7% and over 5% year-on-year increase in average hourly wages, we should expect the Fed to remain hawkish in its statement.

Going ahead, Indian bond yields will closely track these developments and the movement in US treasury yields and crude oil prices.

After a steep fall in yields over the last one month, there is a possibility of a rebound in yields from current levels. However, given the high level of absolute yields across the yield curve, we expect the upside to remain capped. We expect the 10-year government bond yield to continue to trade between 7.2% to 7.5%.

Given much of the rate hikes have already been delivered and the starting yields on short to medium-duration bonds are between 7.0%-7.5%, bond funds are likely to do better over the coming 2-3 years. Investors with a 2-3 years investment horizon and some appetite for intermittent volatility, can continue to add to dynamic bond funds in a staggered manner.

Dynamic bond funds have the flexibility to change the portfolio positioning as per the evolving market conditions. This makes dynamic bond funds better suited for long-term investors in this volatile macro environment.

Investors with shorter investment horizons and low-risk appetite should stick with liquid funds. Rate hikes and continued reduction in durable liquidity surplus are positive for short-term debt fund categories like the liquid fund. We would expect further improvement in the return potential of these categories as interest accrual on short-term debt instruments has risen meaningfully.

Since the interest rate on bank saving accounts are not likely to increase quickly while the returns from the liquid fund are already seeing an increase, investing in liquid funds looks more attractive for your surplus funds.

Investors with a short-term investment horizon and with little desire to take risks should invest in liquid funds which own government securities and do not invest in private sector companies which carry lower liquidity and higher risk of capital loss in case of default.

Source: RBI

Name of the Scheme	This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*	Riskometer
Quantum Dynamic Bond Fund An Open-ended Dynamic Debt Scheme Investing Across Duration. A relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk.	• Regular income over short to medium term and capital appreciation • Investment in Debt / Money Market Instruments / Government Securities	Investors understand that their principal will be at Moderate Risk

*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

Above article is authored by Quantum.

View All