Balancing Act: The Coalition Government and Markets in India

Posted On Tuesday, Jun 11, 2024


Let's explore how the current coalition government may impact investments. The Indian stock market is a barometer of the country's economic health and is shaped by the prevailing political environment. With the coalition government currently at the helm, the investment outlook in India is marked by both opportunities and challenges, necessitating a nuanced understanding for investors aiming to navigate this terrain effectively.

Economic Reforms and Stability

One of the key aspects of a coalition government is its focus on sustainable economic reforms. We’ve seen a steady push towards digitalisation, infrastructure development, and a favourable business environment. These initiatives foster long-term growth. For investors, this means there’s a steady foundation being laid for sustained market performance.

The stock market, in such a political climate, shows resilience. With a mix of traditional industries and burgeoning sectors like technology and renewable energy, there's a broad spectrum of opportunities. The government’s emphasis on “Make in India” and self-reliance may boost domestic companies, offering good prospects for growth-oriented investors. These measures are also designed to attract foreign investments, bolster domestic manufacturing, and propel economic growth.

The government's commitment to fiscal discipline and strategic reforms is expected to yield positive outcomes in the long term. Coalition governments, by their nature, involve multiple stakeholders with diverse viewpoints. So, the broader economic policies remain focused on sustainable growth and development.

Market Performance

The stock market isn’t without its ups and downs. Market fluctuations can be considered a given condition, especially in a dynamic economy like India’s. However, the coalition government's commitment to fiscal discipline and strategic reforms can help cushion against global economic uncertainties.

The stock market's performance under the coalition government has exhibited resilience, buoyed by policy initiatives creating a fertile ground for investments in various sectors.

Over the long-term, India’s GDP has been higher during Coalition Governments

Over the long-term, India’s GDP has been higher during Coalition Governments

Note: The number in red rectangle is from a changed data series starting Jan 2015. While a “superior” series, there is no comparable number to equate the “New” with the “Old”. Most economists deduct 0% to 1.5% from the “New” to equate to the “Old”; therefore, under Modi, the GDP has been at 5.9% at best matching the 5.6% under the BJP-led coalition government of Vajpayee that resulted in a rout for the BJP at the time of the next election in 2004. Please note that data used for World GDP for 2021 is a median Estimate since World Bank data is not yet available and India GDP data is governments second advance estimate released at the end of February.

(Source: RBI and; data as of December 2023)

A Note on Growth and Investments

Historically, growth and investments in India have demonstrated resilience and steadiness during coalition governments. Despite the inherent challenges of managing diverse political perspectives and interests, coalition governments have often succeeded in fostering an environment conducive to economic stability and growth. This is largely due to their collective focus on pragmatic policy-making and inclusive economic reforms.

Moreover, the coalition governments' commitment to fiscal prudence, structural reforms, and global integration has bolstered investor confidence. As a result, India has witnessed steady capital inflows, robust market performance, and a resilient investment climate during these periods, underscoring the adaptability and strength of its economic framework amidst political diversity.

Growth and Investments

Growth and Investments

Source: CMIE, RBI, WorldBank, Average for the period; Quantum working and Calculations

Investor Sentiment

As a thoughtful investor, navigating this landscape requires a balanced approach. Diversification becomes key, and that's where a Multi-Asset Allocation factors in. Diversification helps in balancing the risks and rewards, particularly in a market characterised by fluctuations like global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and domestic challenges. Investors need to be cognisant of these factors and adopt a strategic approach to mitigate risks.

A Multi-Asset Allocation Fund is designed for investors who would like a singularised opportunity for market exposure in different asset classes without the hassle of managing multiple investments. As an investor in this Fund you can strive to benefit from equity market gains, the developments in the debt market, and from the inherent value of gold. A multi-asset fund therefore is your one-stop-shop for investing.

Quantum’s Multi-Asset Allocation Fund: A Balanced Approach

A Multi-Asset Allocation Fund offers a robust solution for investors seeking to build a resilient portfolio. This Fund invest across three asset classes, including equities, debt and gold, thereby spreading the investment risk. The core advantage of this Fund lies in their ability to leverage the strengths of different asset classes, ensuring that the overall portfolio is not overly dependent on the performance of a single asset class.

During the periods of market fluctuations, the Multi-Asset Allocation Fund can provide stability due to diversification of investments in three asset classes. Like markets, asset classes also move in cycles. For instance, while equities may face short-term downturns, debt may offer steadier returns and gold generally has inverse relationship with equity offer stability. This balanced approach can help in cushioning the impact of market swings on the overall portfolio.

Furthermore, the Fund are managed by professional Fund Managers who continuously monitor and adjust the asset mix based on market opportunities and economic forecasts. This dynamic management helps in optimising returns while keeping risks in check, make Multi-Asset Allocation Fund a prudent choice for your investments and long-term wealth creation.

The key takeaway is that,

Incorporating a Multi-Asset Allocation Fund into your portfolio means you’re not putting all your eggs in one basket. For the Indian market, where we see a mix of rapid growth and occasional slowdowns, a Multi-Asset Allocation Fund offers a balanced pathway to achieving your financial goals.

Wrapping up,

With the coalition government steering the ship, India’s investment landscape is poised for exciting developments. For investors, this means opportunities abound, but with the usual caveat of market fluctuations. By incorporating a Multi-Asset Allocation Fund into your investment strategy, you can navigate this market with greater confidence. Diversification, expert management, and a balanced approach are your allies in making the most of India’s dynamic investment opportunities. So, stay informed, stay diversified, and happy investing!

Product Labeling
Name of the SchemeThis product is suitable for investors who are seeking*Riskometer of scheme

Quantum Multi Asset Allocation Fund

An Open-Ended Scheme Investing in Equity & Equity Related Instruments, Debt & Money Market Instruments and Gold Related Instruments

Tier I Benchmark: NIFTY 50 TRI (40%) + CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund All Index (45%) + Domestic Price of Gold (15%)

• Long term capital appreciation and current income

• Investment in a Diversified Portfolio of Equity & Equity Related Instruments, Debt & Money Market Instruments and Gold Related Instruments

Investors understand that their principal will be at High Risk

*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

The views expressed here in this article / video are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Quantum AMC / Quantum Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s). The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

Above article is authored by Quantum.

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