Gold Monthly for November 2025

After a strong September, gold extended its bullish momentum into October, marked by heightened volatility and significant price swings. The metal surged past the much-anticipated $4,000 per troy ounce level, touching an intramonth high of $4,381 before retreating to a low of $3,885 — an 11.3% correction from peak to trough. Despite the pullback, gold ended the month trading near $4,002 per ounce, securing its ninth consecutive month of positive returns in 2025, underscoring continued investor confidence and resilience amid a volatile macroeconomic backdrop.

Gold’s performance in October was shaped by several key macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations. The shutdown caused delays in the release of critical economic data, heightening uncertainty around the labour market and the broader U.S. economic outlook. This uncertainty fuelled demand for safe-haven assets, pushing gold and silver to new all-time highs during the month.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee exhibited relative resilience against the U.S. dollar; however, by the end of the month, it traded largely flat, registering a modest appreciation of 0.24%. During the month, gold prices posted gains of 3.73% in USD and 4.96% in INR terms.

Outlook

The demand for gold as a diversifier remains intact, underpinned by persistent geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy and labor market, further compounded by delays in official data releases amid the government shutdown. While the fundamental drivers behind the current rally remain supportive, pullbacks and consolidation look likely within the context of the cyclical bull market, a relatively short and sharp correction is more likely over the next few months.

Xi – Trump Meeting

The crucial meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping amidst this ongoing trade war was exactly as one would expect. The Chinese side agreed to resume purchasing soybeans from the United States, while the U.S. side reduced certain tariff rates—an easier concession, given that the tariffs had been inflicting greater economic strain on the U.S. than on China. The most significant concession made by both sides involved reductions in export controls, reduced Tariff and restrictions for China in exchange of suspension of additional Rare Earth Elements (REE) related restrictions. We expect that there will be relative calm on the US-China trade front until at least April-2026, which is when Trump is scheduled to go to China for another meeting with Xi.

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve announced a further reduction of 25 basis points in its policy rate during the October meeting. Following the September decision, this move was widely anticipated by markets, though the magnitude of the rate cut remained a point of contention. Powell stated that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” signalling caution and raising scepticism regarding the prospect of further reduction in rates.

We still expect a 0.25% rate cut in December-2025 and additional rate cuts during the first half of next year, but this view hinges on further weakness in labour market. The decision to halt the ongoing reduction of its balance sheet indicates an intent to stop the quantitative tightening. At the same time, rising federal debt which now stands at close to $38 Trillion and widening fiscal deficits continue to pose risks to U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals. These structural challenges have strengthened gold’s appeal as a safeguard against fiscal deterioration and potential long-term weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Inflation and Labour Market

Rising inflation and a weakening labour market remain key concerns for the U.S. economy, continuing to lend support to gold prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics had earlier revised previous months’ employment data to lower levels, pointing to softer underlying job growth, while the unemployment rate has inched higher in recent readings. The release of the September non-farm payroll report was delayed due to the government shutdown, adding to uncertainty around the current state of the labour market in the absence of timely data. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has noted that initial jobless claims have stabilized, suggesting that although hiring momentum has slowed, conditions in the labour market remain relatively steady for now.

The effects of the Trump administration’s tariffs had already started to appear in recent months, contributing to a rise in inflation, which increased to 3% in September. Higher import costs and persistent supply-chain constraints have been key drivers. Following the recent meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 47%, while China eased its restrictions on rare earth metal exports. These moves represent a cautious step toward easing trade tensions, though the direct impact on inflation and trade flows will take time to materialize as supply chains and pricing gradually adjust.

Central Banks continue to diversify

Amid growing concerns about the health of the U.S. economy, central banks have increasingly turned to gold as a means of diversifying their reserves and reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar. The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has declined to approximately 42%, while the share of gold holdings has risen notably. Central banks from major economies such as China, India, Poland, and Kazakhstan have been at the forefront of this accumulation, significantly expanding their gold reserves in recent quarters. Notably, as reported the Bank of Korea is considering to resume gold purchases for the first time since 2013, further underscoring the shift in reserve management strategies. These sustained central bank acquisitions have been a major factor underpinning the ongoing rally in gold prices and are expected to remain a key source of support for global gold demand in the period ahead.

Demand and ETF’s

Rising gold prices have attracted significant investor attention, with many seeking to participate in the ongoing rally. Exchange-Traded Funds have taken centre stage in this trend, witnessing a substantial surge in demand. Globally, gold ETFs added 221.7 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025, representing a 30% increase from the previous quarter and a 134% rise year-on-year. In India, the assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs surpassed the $10 billion mark. As of the end of September, Indian gold ETFs recorded inflows of $2.18 billion in 2025, the highest on record and exceeding all previous annual totals. The growing investor interest in gold ETFs is expected to sustain strong demand, and its impact is likely to remain evident in gold price movements.

In Conclusion

With gold trading at elevated levels, it remains strong above the $4,000 mark, though markets may enter a zone where investors adopt a cautious approach, waiting for clearer signals, which could lead to a period of consolidation. Notwithstanding pull back in prices amidst the confluence of factors including dollar movement, recent price gains accompanied by increased volatility could trigger sharp short-term downside movements should new headwinds for gold emerge.

Nevertheless, the structural and fundamental drivers of the rally—persistent macroeconomic concerns, unresolved fiscal issues, and ongoing geopolitical risks—remain firmly in place. Taken together, these factors reinforce gold’s role in potentially uncertain and unstable global landscape, suggesting that its strength is likely to endure in the longer term.

Source: Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), World Gold Council, U S Federal Reserve

Above article is authored by Quantum.

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