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  • July 17, 2017
    Quantum Equity Team

    In the month of June 2017, BSE Sensex lost 0.26% on a total return basis. In the first 6 months of calendar 2017 BSE Sensex has gained 16.97% rewarding equity investors. BSE Midcap Index gained 0.25% during the month whereas BSE Smallcap index appreciated 2.24% in June 2017. Midcap and Smallcap indices have done fantastic so far in calendar 2017, with rise of 22.48% and 28.18% respectively. Reliance Industries stock gained 2.93% during the month gone by. Among sector indices, real estate, healthcare and FMCG performed much better. Oil & gas, auto and IT were sectors which were out of favour with investors.

    Market Performance at a Glance
    Market Returns %
    June 2017April-June 2017
    S&P BSE SENSEX*-0.2616.97
    S&P BSE MIDCAP *0.2522.48
    S&P BSE SMALL CAP2.2428.18
    BEST PERFORMER SECTORSReal Estate, Healthcare and FMCG
    LAGGARD SECTORSOil & Gas, Auto, and IT
    * On Total Return Basis
    * Source-Bloomberg

    FIIs invested USD 610 Mn in India stocks during June month. They have pumped in USD 8.5 Bn in the first 6 months of 2017. Domestic institutions (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of USD 1 Bn, all of which came from mutual funds. So far in 2017, DIIs have put USD 3.3 Bn to work in equities. Indian rupee depreciated marginally by 0.11% against US dollar, settling at 64.58.

    Globally, economic growth seems to be returning in parts of developed economies. Europe has seen economic activity pick up. It could bring down the liquidity infusion going ahead which was being carried out for a few years. There are chances of interest rates being increased in the Eurozone.

    Another important event was shock election result in U.K. PM Theresa May had called for elections to strengthen her position and better negotiate her country’s departure from Eurozone. However, the decision to hold the election backfired and the party lost their majority in Parliament. 

    The month has also seen weakness of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, as measured by the dollar index. The US economic data wasn’t strong as expected, whereas in other parts of Europe there are expectations of rising interest rates indicating strong economic data. This led to fall in the dollar index, the sharpest for the past few years. The U.S. central bank has communicated that it will raise interest rates twice in 2017, apart from one done earlier in the year.

    Rise in US interest rates could lead to corrections in stock prices in emerging markets including India. Better rates in home market will reduce the temptation for FIIs to take higher risk in emerging markets. However, the case till now has been different with equity markets rallying everywhere. And this has been liquidity driven without underlying earnings growth of companies.

    On the domestic front, monsoons are looking to be normal. This is a good sign which could lead to agriculture growth and possible revival in the economy. Inflation has also been benign with 2.18% measure for the month of May, which is quite a low number. This has given hopes that RBI may cut down interest rates in their next announcement in August.

    End of June also saw the end of multitude of indirect taxes. From July 01, 2017, India moved to GST, which is a single tax rate for indirect taxes. The earlier system where taxes had a cascading effect and thus more inflationary to end consumer will come to an end. In the near term, it will entail savings in logistics and transportation cost. Trucks waiting for miles on end to enter a state border is history, and a visible beneficiary of GST. There are expectations that:
    1) Tax collections will go up due to better compliance and,
    2) Overall inflation will reduce for the economy with GST. We will know over the next 1-2 years whether these benefits will be realized. 

    Fund Outlook:

    The scheme owned 24 stocks at end of the month. Position was trimmed in 3 stocks as valuations looked full. The scheme had a cash of approximately 16% at month end.

    Ignoring near term disruptions caused by demonitisation and GST, we remain optimistic about Indian equities in the long run. Weak commodities globally especially lower crude prices keep inflation under control and allow the government to use the savings generated to support the capex cycle. India remains a compelling long term structural story driven by the domestic Indian consumer and warrants an allocation in every long term investor’s portfolio. The sharp rally over the recent months despite subdued earnings warrants caution in the near term. Investors should add moderately to equity at this point of time.

    Data Source: Bloomberg


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

  • July 17, 2017
    Quantum Fixed Income Team

    Indian bond markets extended their rally in June due to a relatively softer tone from RBI during the June policy review and record a low inflation point. The 10 year benchmark yield fell by 15 basis points (100 bps = 1%) to end the month of June at 6.51% as against the close of 6.66% in the previous month. (yields falling means bond prices rise)

    The RBI in its monetary policy review on 7th June did acknowledge the lower inflation trajectory and revised its inflation projections sharply downwards “in the range of 2.0-3.5% in the first half of the year and 3.5-4.5% in the second half”. Though RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rates unchanged with a 5-1 vote, it signaled a possibility of rate cuts going forward if inflation undershoots its target.

    CPI inflation for May 2017 surprised the market on a lower side, coming at a multi-year low of 2.18% vs 2.99% in April. We believe inflation trajectory to remain muted as the average CPI for FY2018 is likely to undershoot the RBI’s medium term target of 4%. This will provide RBI enough headroom to reduce policy rates by 25bps most likely in the August policy. For any further reduction in rates, RBI needs to be convinced about the durability of the dis-inflation over medium term.

    The monsoon season has started well and reservoirs storage levels reportedly remained above long term average till now. The timely onset and reasonably good spread of rains led to a healthy pick-up in sowing activity.

    The Central Government cleared the implementation of HRA allowance under 7th pay commission from July 01, 2017. We expect State Governments will follow suit in the coming months and they could also raise wages and allowances of government employees in their respective states. The pay hike coupled with the recent move by various states to waive off farm loans will put upward pressure on inflation trajectory and also affect the fiscal position of states negatively.

    The liquidity condition remained in huge surplus, as commercial banks parking around Rs. 3 trillion of excess cash with RBI on a daily basis. RBI announced an Open Market Operation (OMO) of Rs. 100 billion to sell government securities and absorb cash from banking system. Given the amount of excess liquidity, we expect RBI will conduct more OMO sales in the coming months which can put upward pressure on bond yields.

    The World

    Global yields inched up by 10-20 basis points later in the month as officials from European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) indicated that they are looking at winding down their asset purchase programs and even looking at higher yields. Inflation in the European region has been surprising on the upside which exerts pressure on bond yields to move north. The simultaneous withdrawal of monetary stimulus in developed economies could pose risk of volatility in Emerging Markets (EMs) and force EM central banks to maintain higher rates to restrict capital outflows.

    FIIs continued investment flows into Indian debt and bought over USD 4.3 billion in June raising the 2017 year till date debt inflows to USD 14.4 billion as against outflows of USD 4 billion in the year 2016. The Indian Rupee has been a key beneficiary of a global EM rally and positive investment sentiments in India.

    Though the bond rally in May-June was supported by sustained downward surprises in CPI prints post demonetarization and expectation of a rate cut, but at yields below 6.50%, valuation looks stretched and risk reward becomes unfavorable.

    Outlook

    Since the start of the year, we have maintained the view that the best of the bond market gains are behind us and investors should lower return expectations from bond funds. The current move down in bond yields and the potential of some more on further rate cuts may lead to improved bond return performance than anticipated but investors may still consider it only as a tactical and a short term outcome.

    Data Source: Bloomberg


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Quantum AMC / Quantum Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering / communicating any indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s). The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

  • July 17, 2017
    Quantum Alternative Investments Team

    The inability of gold prices to move past the psychological barriers of USD $1300 an ounce made market participants nervous and led to heavy selling. U.S. Fed did deliver a rate hike as expected by markets but the follow through hawkish commentary, maintaining outlook for rate hikes and moving forward with balance sheet reduction aka Quantitative tightening were seen as negative for gold markets. Gold markets were clearly under selling pressure declining by -2.2% to USD $1,241.55 an ounce. However, given the recent trend in inflation and mixed economic signals stand in contradiction of the economic buoyancy reflected in U.S. Fed’s optimism; casting doubts on their ability to follow up on their commitment.

    The Federal Reserve has shrugged off slower growth as transitory and showcased more optimism on the resilience of the economy. They maintained their guidance for one rate hike this year and three for 2018. That’s not all; the Fed stated that it expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalisation programme this year which would gradually reduce the Fed’s holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from securities. Given the recent increase in bond yields as market participants digest a hawkish shift in tone among key central banks of late, while equities stay resilient around all-time highs; it has been negative for the yellow metal.

    Fed may not meet their 2% inflation target due to the recent sharp decline in oil prices, tight labour market (having less jobs), subdued bond yields and a flattish yield curve indicating that expectations for future inflation are falling which casts doubts on the Fed’s ability to cut its balance sheet and aggressively push borrowing costs higher. And this will put policy makers’ projections at risk for aggressive monetary tightening. There are other monetary and credit data giving similar deflationary signals. If inflation remains low then it could remove the aggressive tightening projections and help gold prices rebound.

    Outlook

    The reflation trade triggered by Donald Trump’s election last November has clearly all but dissipated. The reason it is not completely dead is because Republicans, want to show real progress on the tax cuts before the midterm Congressional elections due in November 2018, may be forced to some agreement. However, the current tax changes being proposed by the President will morph over time and will be significantly watered down if it is ever to become law. Therefore, since the final plan will be significantly diluted from the proposed form, its effect on the economy and for equity prices will be extremely reduced. This means the current excitement on Wall Street is about as far offsided as possible.

    As far as the US economy is concerned, there is certainly no sign of acceleration recovery and the economy continues to expand around the trend 2.1% annualised rate it has been growing at since this recovery began in 2009. The Fed has stuck formally to the view that the slowdown seen in the first quarter of this year was “transitory”. Given that the economy has been in a so-called “recovery” phase for the last eight years and given the tightening bias, there lies high probability that the economies witnesses a fall rather than a rise in growth levels. On the labour market, the breakout in wage growth which led to a more aggressive Fed was largely driven by many U.S. states raising or mandating minimum wages and not owing to the tightness of the labour market. But recent wage data has resulted in growing doubts whether this trend will be maintained. Inflation data suggests that there is a growling likelihood that reported inflation has already peaked in this cycle.

    We believe it is imperative for the Fed to normalize rates sooner rather than later. But given the cautious dovish stance adopted by the Yellen led Federal Reserve so far, have they in their own view tightened prematurely given the recent inflationary trends we discussed above? This aggressive tone of tightening can quickly bring under pressure the underlying weak areas of economic growth. The auto market is one example of a major sector where demand has been artificially bought forward in this cycle as a byproduct of excess liquidity aided by aggressive subprime financing. The explosion of auto credit from USD $800 billion at the 2010 bottom to more than USD $1.5 trillion today was fundamentally driven by asset inflation. When car prices fall sharply, losses from loan defaults will soar. During the last cycle, used car prices peaked in early 2006 and then fell nearly 25% through the 2009 bottom. After plateauing for more than two years, used car prices have now begun a steep descent. Increase in borrowing costs can further increase delinquencies and result in increased car sales intensify the vicious default cycle.

    Continued Fed tightening also represents the biggest risk to the current stretched valuations on Wall Street. While interest rates may be rising from an extremely low level, the sheer amount of aggregate debt in the developed world make these economies extremely vulnerable to any monetary tightening. Also, the optimism reflected in earnings is highly sensitive to small changes in interest rate expectations. This is particularly the case in terms of consumption as it’s not supported by the real increase in median household incomes but by central bank liquidity.

    After the U.S. elections, we believe the price of gold came down as the market was priced in higher real interest rates in anticipation of lower regulations. We indicated that this euphoria will cede to realism, meaning that regulations might not be cut quite as much. However, the real positive trigger for gold would be when market expects Fed to be unable to normalize monetary policy and reverse its course at the first signs of crisis.

    The world is in great disequilibrium, both with respect to the global economy and geopolitics as well. The fallout of the geopolitics globally seems to now cap the downsides in gold. Given the macroeconomic picture, gold will be a useful portfolio diversification tool and thereby helping you to reduce overall portfolio risk.

    Source: The World Gold Council, Bloomberg


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

  • June 20, 2017

    Quantum Mutual Fund – Your Mitra (friend) Indeed

    Rohit comes from a closely knit family. A close friend and a CA by profession, he is well settled in his career and with his finances. But when his father passed away, the fabric binding the family started to come apart at the seams over the question of inheritance. As Rohit shared his troubles with me, I couldn’t help but reflect that perhaps his situation might resonate with that of many a household that once lived amicably. Therefore while estate planning becomes a must for all of us to ensure that the family remains as closely knit as it was; mutual funds and especially Quantum, can help investors ensure that their minds and those of their families are at peace, even should the worst occur.

    How can Quantum help?

    The last thing you want is to fight with your family over the legacy that a loved one leaves behind him/her. Through various facilities that we offer our investors, it becomes that much simpler to ensure that those we leave behind us, when we make our journey, do not quarrel amongst themselves. Therefore the Nomination facility gains utmost importance.

    What is the Nomination facility?

    Similar to the practice as in bank accounts, De-mat accounts and other financial investment products; one can register a nominee for one’s mutual fund investments. The Nomination facility offered by Quantum Mutual Fund enables a unit holder to nominate an individual, who can claim the units, post the unfortunate demise of the unit holder.

    Nomination is now mandatory for new folios opened by an individual, especially with single holding. Even those investors who do not wish to nominate must sign separately confirming their intention to not appoint a nominee. An investor can nominate any person as a nominee to whom his/her Mutual fund units will be transferred on his/her demise.

    Benefits of having a Nominee

    The registration of nomination will facilitate easy transfer of funds to the nominee on the demise of the investor. In absence of a nominee, a claimant would have to produce a host of documents like a Will, Legal Heir Certificate, No Objection Certificate from other legal heirs etc. to get the units transferred in his/her name.

    The idea is to ensure that the transmission of investments to the nominee is a smooth and hassle free process.

    Registering a Nominee

    Registering a nominee for one’s investment is very simple and can be done easily on the www.QuantumAMC.com website. For details on how to register a nominee for your folio and other details, click here.

    One can also register a nominee offline.

    In case, for whatever reason, the investor wishes to change the nominee, then that facility is also available on the www.QuantumAMC.com website.

    Register Your Mitra with Quantum

    Quantum has introduced the Q-Mitra facility which allows you as the primary holder in the folio, to authorize a self-appointed person(s) to act on your behalf. The transaction will be initiated only by you, the investor and the other designated person will be approached only for verification/confirmation. The verification/confirmation call to Q-Mitra will be for any of the investor details also.

    The benefit of this facility is that your designated Q-Mitra can be contacted by Quantum Mutual Fund only if you are not contactable or reachable for any verification/confirmation through call/email. Post successful registration of Q-Mitra, he/she will be authorized to verify/confirm transactions done by you on your behalf over the call/email received from our Customer Care Team. In case you are not contactable, these calls as mentioned above will be made to the registered Q-Mitra.

    Therefore, your spouse or a family member that you trust, will have an idea of your investments and will also know whom to contact in Quantum in case they need to get in touch with us.

    What Else Can One Do?

    It is very important for the investor to ensure safety and the security of investments, irrespective of the need to nominate.

    The world today is battling with the menace of terrorism and the cyber world is no different. The threats to data security will thus only increase as hackers searching to cause mayhem and disruption continue to target websites to hack into sensitive data and use it for their own nefarious purposes.

    Thus, data security is imperative for us so that we ensure that we are updated with the latest trends in internet security and deploy them on our websites for the protection of your data. Our websites are regularly audited from a security perspective and we spend a substantial sum every year to ensure that we are updated with the latest tools to prevent data leakage and disruption. As part of the footer of the website, you will see:


    These are cyber security certificates that showcase our commitment to cyber security as we are certified by Trust Active as being a completely secure website.

    Quantum’s commitment does not end only with website security. We have a holistic, 360 degree approach to security. We are an ISO/IEC 27001:2013 certified company. This is an information security standard that was published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and is a specification for an Information Security Management System (ISMS). Organizations that meet the standard may be certified compliant by an independent and accredited certification body on successful completion of a formal compliance audit.

    Therefore you can be rest assured that your data with us is safe and secure.

    Making the Investor’s Life Simpler

    Other than the above mentioned initiatives, we, at Quantum, simply believe in making the investing experience with us as seamless and as hassle free as possible.

    One small example of that is the Business Reply Envelope (BRE) facility. In order to serve you better, we have the BRE facility which will make it easier for you to invest and connect with us - free of charge!!

    All you need to do is: download the Business Reply Envelope from our website, fill it in and mail it to us at ZERO cost to you.

    You can use the BRE to send application forms, queries, suggestions and feedback without bearing any charges.

    Keeping this simplicity and doing what’s best for the customer in mind, we have ensured that the investor is able to transact with us, whether sitting dedicatedly in front of his/her system or when on the go.

    As an investor, you can transact by sending us a simple email on Transact@QuantumAMC.com or by sending us a message through WhatsApp or Hike! Click here to know more about other ways in which you can transact with us.

    Our Customer Relations team is happy to answer any queries you may have on Nomination and other facilities that we offer our investors. Do write to us on Customercare@QuantumAMC.com and we will be happy to answer them for you.

    Taking care, not only of your investments, but security of your data and continuing to make your investing life simpler too!


    Disclaimer, Statutory Details & Risk Factors:

    The views expressed here in this article are for general information and reading purpose only and do not constitute any guidelines and recommendations on any course of action to be followed by the reader. The views are not meant to serve as a professional guide / investment advice / intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument or mutual fund units for the reader. The article has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and views given are fair and reasonable as on date. Readers of this article should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations and advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed decision before making any investments.

    Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully.

    Please visit – www.QuantumMF.com to read scheme specific risk factors. Investors in the Scheme(s) are not being offered a guaranteed or assured rate of return and there can be no assurance that the schemes objective will be achieved and the NAV of the scheme(s) may go up and down depending upon the factors and forces affecting securities market. Investment in mutual fund units involves investment risk such as trading volumes, settlement risk, liquidity risk, default risk including possible loss of capital. Past performance of the sponsor / AMC / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme(s). Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited. (liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The Sponsor, Trustee and Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956.

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