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  •   Subbu’s Solutions - 09 July 2010
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     Posted by subbu's solution on Friday, July 09, 2010

    1. i) Sir, I intend to make some money by trading in Equity based index ETFs by allocating a small portion of my funds. My strategy would be to buy some units at every drop of index by about 2% and sell it on recovery of index. I am thinking of this strategy because market offers such opportunities very frequently as it happened recently when market over reacted to European crisis when index tanked by over 1000 points and swiftly recovered .I am willing to wait for say 1-3 months should recovery take longer. I am a firm believer that our economy is strong and there is little chance of market losing steam in the near future. I am not too sure about cost part of the transactions though. Is my thinking right?
    (ii) Also, do ETF prices reflect real time index changes? -
    Francis A. D Souza

    Dear Francis,
    Let’s start with your first question.
    Assuming you purchased a particular share for Rs 100. Now considering an index drop of 2%, let’s keep adding this particular share to your portfolio:


    Share price

    Index Drop 

    Amt invested

    No of shares purchased

    100.00

     

    100

    1.00

    98.00

    -2%

    100

    1.02

    96.04

    -2%

    100

    1.04

    94.12

    -2%

    100

    1.06

    92.24

    -2%

    100

    1.08

    90.39

    -2%

    100

    1.11

    88.58

    -2%

    100

    1.13

    86.81

    -2%

    100

    1.15

    85.08

    -2%

    100

    1.18

    83.37

    -2%

    100

    1.20

    Total

     

    1,000

    10.97


    Going by this, your:

    Average No of shares purchased

    10.97

    Total amount invested

    1,000.00

    Current value of portfolio
    (Total No of shares * Latest Share Price)

    914.64


    To recover your original investment, the market should go up by 9.3%. If originally you had planned to earn 5% on your investment of Rs 1,000, then the current portfolio should be approximately Rs 1,050. This means your portfolio should move from Rs 914.64 to Rs 1050.00, with an increase of 14.8%. This may or may not happen in the short run.

    The point to note here is that for all your efforts taken and the risks involved, the returns might not be that great.

    The BSE 30 over the last decade (March 31, 2000 to March 31, 2010) has given an annualised return of approximately 15%, and this had less risk and less effort.  

    Of course, you could play around with Excel and come up with attractive numbers, but then that is not the point. The key is that many things have to go right on a continuous basis, for you to make sustained returns.

    (ii) With regards to ETFs and real time index changes – Yes, generally ETFs are traded at Real Time NAV, which means that the underlying portfolio of the ETF moves in tandem with the index. The Authorised Participants (AP – institutions chosen by the AMC to act as market makers) can directly approach the AMC for Creation/Redemption of units. This provides opportunities to the AP to provide liquidity in the secondary market by buying and selling ETFs at a spread (BID & ASK) near to Real Time NAV.

     

    2. Dear Subbu, selection of mutual fund scheme is also a task in itself. So, I think investing in FOF is a better idea! Let the FOF manager select the better performing schemes!! What is your opinion? - Satish R. Talekar

    Hello Satish,
    Aptly put! However, investing in a Fund of Funds product is more expensive than investing a mutual fund. So bear that in mind, while choosing your investments.


     

    3. I would like to invest in equity funds and have a high risk profile. Is it better to use STP route or invest through Flexi STP - Nikhil Girme

    Dear Nikhil,
    It’s good that you are able to assess your risk profile. However, even though your profile would be able to bear risks, it is important to understand the fundamentals of picking funds before you dive in to it.
    Also, though they may seem tempting, stay clear of sectoral funds that invest only in a particular industry.
    You could also average out your investments through a Systematic Investment Plan or park a lumpsum in a liquid fund and then transfer portions of it to equity through a Systematic Transfer Plan. Either ways, both options are good enough.

     

    4.  Hi Subbu, what should be a baseline for me to consider that my portfolio has become overcrowded?Girish Sumaria

    Dear Girish,
    Let me begin by saying that there is no magic number to the number of stocks that one should have in your portfolio. But from past experience, holding more than 20 stocks will become difficult to monitor and manage, unless you have help from others. However, if you do have help then the list of stocks that you could invest in can range from 25 up to 40 stocks.

    Also, investing for the long term is a very good strategy, but to increase the number of stocks in the portfolio just because you get ideas from reports may not be a good strategy, as you would start worrying about the small holdings in your portfolio that are not doing so well and miss out on the big picture changes in the stocks where you have higher weight

    For example: Let’s say you have a portfolio of 10 stocks with 10% weight and keep on adding stocks and come to a stage where you have 15 stocks, 10 with 8% weight, 3 stocks with 6% weight and 2 stocks with 1% each.

    Now in this case if the 1% stocks are volatile and the company is not doing well, you may end up worrying about them so much that you miss out on a story on the 8% weight stocks. This could impact your portfolio seriously.   

    The point here is: The number of stocks you should have will depend on your capacity to manage.


    Disclaimer:
    Subbu's Solution is authored by I.V.Subramaniam. I.V.Subramaniam is a director of Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited and Chief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer of Quantum Advisors Private Limited. The responses expressed here are the personal view of the author.

    The responses expressed here are strictly for information and explanation purpose only. The responses are meant for general reading purpose and not to be considered as an investment advice / recommendation. This information is not intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed investment decision before making any investments. The Sponsor, The Investment Manager, The Trustee, their respective directors, employees, affiliates or representatives shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in the responses.

    Statutory Details: Quantum Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been constituted as a Trust under the Indian Trust Act, 1882. Sponsor: Quantum Advisors Private Limited.(liability of Sponsor limited to Rs. 1,00,000/-) Trustee: Quantum Trustee Company Private Limited. Investment Manager: Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited.

    Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks. Please read the Scheme Information Document / Key Information Memorandum / Statement of Additional Information /Addenda carefully before investing.


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